How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Traders currently price "5-6" at 61% for "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.5 points. Full distribution: 5-6 61%, <5 29%, 7-8 9%, 9-10 3%. The market has traded $492K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two flights reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 12 (V3 debut in May) and Flight 13 (July 24 payload deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites with stage recovery)—following prior test setbacks and FAA mishap reviews. Recent milestones, including successful Raptor 3 performance and the shift toward operational missions, position traders to favor a 5-6 launch total for the year, reflecting a measured cadence increase in the second half amid ongoing environmental assessments and licensing. Flight 14 is slated for August with orbital goals and potential booster catch attempts, while broader plans target commercial Starlink and Artemis support later in 2026. Regulatory timelines, vehicle iteration pace, and infrastructure readiness at Starbase remain key swing factors that could push outcomes lower or enable a modest ramp without exceeding single-digit totals.

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