How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Traders currently price "1250+" at 86% for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: 1250+ 86%, 1200–1249 7%, 1150–1199 7%, 1100–1149 5%. The market has traded $82K in total volume and resolves Jan 10, 2027. Elevated early-2026 tornado activity, with over 1,100 confirmed reports by mid-August per SPC and NCEI data, has positioned the 1250+ bracket at 85.5% implied probability. Record counts in Illinois (220+), Indiana, and surrounding Midwest states reflect repeated alignment of key ingredients—strong low-level moisture, wind shear, atmospheric instability, and northward-shifted storm tracks—driven by jet stream patterns and possible ENSO influences. Active April and March outbreaks contrast with a quieter May, but the pace through summer supports trader consensus for a well-above-average annual total near or exceeding historical norms of roughly 1,200.

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