Human moon landing in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 99% for "Human moon landing in 2026?". The market has traded $2.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NASA's Artemis III lunar landing remains the leading candidate for a crewed Moon return, yet repeated schedule slips, Starship HLS development hurdles, and the absence of required orbital refueling demonstrations have driven traders to assign a 99.2% probability against any human landing occurring before the end of 2026. Multiple uncrewed Starship test flights must still succeed, followed by integrated vehicle checkout and regulatory approvals, leaving insufficient calendar time even under optimistic timelines. While an unforeseen acceleration in testing or emergency program reprioritization could theoretically shift outcomes, current hardware, integration, and certification realities make such breakthroughs highly improbable within the remaining months.

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