Insurrection Act invoked by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 18% for "Insurrection Act invoked by...?". Full distribution: December 31 18%, September 30 2%, July 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in response to protests against federal immigration enforcement actions, most recently in January 2026 following an ICE operation in Minnesota that sparked demonstrations. No invocation has occurred since the 1992 Los Angeles riots, though the administration considered the step amid 2025 border security reviews and anti-deportation protests in Los Angeles and other cities. The Supreme Court has limited the president's use of alternative statutes to federalize National Guard units for domestic operations, increasing focus on the Insurrection Act's broader authorities. With 2026 midterm elections approaching, traders monitor potential catalysts including further immigration clashes, legislative reform efforts such as S.2070, and any official announcements tying domestic unrest to rebellion or inability to enforce federal law.

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