Iran leadership change by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 25% for "Iran leadership change by...?". Full distribution: June 30, 2027 25%, December 31 16%, November 30 10%, October 31 7%. The market has traded $24.0M in total volume and resolves Jul 1, 2027. The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, leading the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Trader sentiment centers on Mojtaba's reported injuries from the attack, prolonged absence from public view, and conflicting reports of possible incapacitation, which have fueled speculation about his ability to consolidate authority amid active hostilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security elites continue to shape decision-making, while the Assembly retains formal power to remove or replace the leader. Ongoing regional conflict, diplomatic pressures, and any further health-related developments could accelerate additional turnover before key resolution dates.

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