Iran leadership change by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 26% for "Iran leadership change by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 26%, December 31 17%, September 30 10%, July 31 4%. The market has traded $19.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues. Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.

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