Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 10% for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 10%, August 31 3%, June 15 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume. Israeli forces advanced across the Litani River in May 2026 during operations against Hezbollah, establishing positions north of the river and issuing expanded evacuation orders toward the Zahrani River. Subsequent April-June 2026 U.S.-mediated ceasefires conditioned phased Israeli withdrawals on Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in pilot zones, and verified security arrangements. Partial pullbacks occurred in July 2026 in designated areas, with Lebanese troops assuming control in some buffer zones, yet Israeli positions persist elsewhere. August 2026 Rome talks continue to address further withdrawals alongside Hezbollah disarmament disputes, directly shaping trader assessments of timelines for full redeployment south of the river under resolution 1701 frameworks.

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