Jack Doherty Prison Time?

Traders currently price "No Prison Time" at 87% for "Jack Doherty Prison Time?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.1 points. Full distribution: No Prison Time 87%, <2 Years 8%, 2-5 Years 8%, 5+ Years 3%. The market has traded $22K in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. Jack Doherty’s entry into Miami-Dade’s felony drug pre-trial diversion program after his November 2025 arrest on controlled-substance, marijuana, and resisting-arrest charges has anchored trader expectations that he will avoid conviction entirely. Prosecutors dropped the marijuana count, and his May 2026 house-arrest period with an ankle monitor reflects standard program compliance rather than active prosecution. With resolution tied to successful completion by late October, the 86.9% implied probability on “No Prison Time” mirrors the low risk of a full trial or sentence absent major violations. Minor remaining charges and the streamer’s celebrity resources further tilt outcomes away from the slim <2-year or longer buckets.

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