JD Vance out as VP by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 6% for "JD Vance out as VP by...?". Full distribution: December 31 6%, June 15 0%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $239K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. JD Vance continues serving as the 50th vice president in the Trump administration, with recent activities centered on foreign policy negotiations, including efforts related to Iran and European allies. Setbacks in April 2026, such as unsuccessful talks tied to Hungarian elections and Middle East developments, drew scrutiny but produced no confirmed pressure for removal. A July 2026 internal review of his security detail over alleged resource use for personal matters has not escalated to formal action or resignation demands. Traders assign low probability to departure by year-end, reflecting the absence of structural triggers like cabinet changes, congressional shifts, or public statements from the president. Midterm elections in November 2026 and positioning for the 2028 cycle represent the nearest scheduled events that could influence stability in the role.

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