Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 84% for "Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.9 points. The market has traded $53K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Justin Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces sexual assault charges stemming from an August 2024 incident, with his November 2025 arrest drawing additional public allegations from multiple women. Traders assign an 83.7% implied probability to no conviction by the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian criminal cases involving sexual assault routinely require extended pre-trial motions, disclosure, and scheduling delays that often push resolutions well beyond initial court appearances set for early 2026. The absence of any reported trial date, combined with the presumption of innocence and historical patterns of dropped or protracted proceedings in similar matters, reinforces market skepticism about a swift guilty verdict before the resolution deadline. Upcoming court updates could shift sentiment if they accelerate the timeline.

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