Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 9% for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". Full distribution: December 31 9%, September 30 3%, August 31 1%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $70.7M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz access have included targeted US airstrikes on Iranian military sites at Kharg Island in March and April 2026, along with later naval incidents, yet these operations spared oil export infrastructure and produced no change in territorial control. Iranian forces continue to operate the island, which handles the bulk of the country's crude exports, while US statements have alternated between seizure threats and signals of negotiated pauses. With the August 31 resolution deadline days away and no ground forces deployed or confirmed occupation, trader pricing reflects the absence of any verified shift in Iranian authority despite sustained regional tensions.

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