Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Traders currently price "SpaceX" at 90% for "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?". Full distribution: SpaceX 90%, xAI 26%, Anthropic 9%, OpenAI 1%. The market has traded $5.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. SpaceX's advanced regulatory filings and plans for a record $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, following its February 2026 merger with xAI, underpin the 89.5% market-implied probability as the largest 2026 IPO by market cap. Institutional demand has driven oversubscription, with the June 2026 pricing at $135 per share positioning it well ahead of peers. xAI's secondary 25.5% odds reflect residual attribution from the combined entity's AI exposure, while Anthropic's October-targeted offering at around $900 billion and lower-probability names like OpenAI sustain only niche trader interest amid later timelines and smaller scales. These dynamics align with broader 2026 IPO momentum in AI and space sectors.

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