Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 28% for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 28%, September 30, 2026 3%, August 31, 2026 1%, July 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $341K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Sébastien Lecornu leads a minority centrist government in France's fragmented National Assembly, where his coalition lacks a majority and depends on procedural mechanisms such as Article 49.3 to advance legislation. Appointed in September 2025 and briefly reappointed after an early resignation, Lecornu has survived repeated no-confidence motions from both far-left and far-right blocs, most recently during the contentious 2026 budget process that concluded in February. President Macron's backing and the absence of a stable alternative coalition have sustained his tenure amid ongoing fiscal pressures and legislative gridlock. Upcoming parliamentary sessions or new spending disputes could test this stability before the 2027 presidential cycle.

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