Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Traders currently price "26°C" at 100% for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.5 points. Full distribution: 26°C 100%, 27°C 0%, 22°C or below 0%, 23°C 0%. The market has traded $73K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. The market's near-certain positioning on a 26°C minimum reflects official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that value as the day's lowest temperature. In mid-August, the city's subtropical climate typically features overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius due to high humidity, limited radiative cooling, and urban heat retention, consistent with long-term August baselines around 25–27°C. No significant weather system, such as a typhoon or strong cold front, altered this pattern on August 14. The consensus would only shift with revised station data, a different measurement methodology, or an unrecognized microclimate effect at the primary reporting site, though such revisions remain rare once initial reports are verified.

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