Macron out by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 5% for "Macron out by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 5%, December 31, 2025 0%, July 31, 2026 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. France’s Fifth Republic gives President Emmanuel Macron a fixed second term ending in May 2027, with no recall mechanism available to force an early exit. Macron has repeatedly confirmed he intends to serve until then and leave politics afterward, most recently in April 2026 statements framing the final year as a period for defending his record. Persistent parliamentary fragmentation since the 2024 snap elections has produced multiple prime-ministerial resignations and budget standoffs, yet opposition calls for resignation have not altered his position. Recent months show continued engagement in foreign policy and defense matters, with no verified signals of voluntary departure before the scheduled election cycle. Trader pricing therefore reflects the constitutional timeline and Macron’s public commitments as the dominant factors, tempered by the possibility of unforeseen health or political shocks within the remaining months.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.