Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 89% for "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $179K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry impact monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver 10kt+ energy in 2026, with all tracked near-Earth objects showing negligible collision probabilities through extensive optical, radar, and infrared surveys. Recent close approaches, including multiple house- and plane-sized objects passing millions of miles away, have been confirmed safe without trajectory shifts raising concerns. Historical data on atmospheric impacts and fireballs underscore the statistical rarity of such events, while ongoing planetary defense efforts like expanded detection networks further reduce uncertainty. No major discoveries or orbital updates in the past month have altered this assessment.

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