Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Traders currently price "↑500" at 100% for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". Full distribution: ↑500 100%, ↑1k 100%, ↑2k 100%, ↑3k 95%. The market has traded $7.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. As of mid-August 2026, CDC data show 2,566 confirmed U.S. measles cases year-to-date—already exceeding the 2,289 cases recorded for all of 2025—with 94% tied to ongoing outbreaks and most occurring in unvaccinated or under-vaccinated individuals, especially children and adolescents. Sustained community transmission in pockets with lower MMR vaccination coverage, combined with imported introductions, has prolonged chains of infection beyond historical norms since measles elimination status was lost regionally. Weekly CDC surveillance reports and state-level updates on case counts, outbreak clusters, and vaccination rates will continue to shape trader assessments of final 2026 totals, while any acceleration in containment efforts or new importation events could alter trajectories before year-end.

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