Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Traders currently price "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 29% for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.8 points. Full distribution: 4.4-4.6m sq km 29%, 4.6-4.8m sq km 26%, 4.2-4.4m sq km 24%, 4.0-4.2m sq km 13%. The market has traded $66K in total volume and resolves Oct 1, 2026. Recent low winter maximum extent and early-season melt have positioned trader consensus around 4.4–4.8 million square kilometers for the 2026 September minimum. Record-low March extent near 14.29 million square kilometers, driven by persistent warmth along the Atlantic sector and delayed freeze-up, left thinner ice more vulnerable to summer melt. Current August observations show continued below-average extent amid elevated sea-surface temperatures, aligning with seasonal forecasts projecting a value near 4.5 million square kilometers. Differentiation among closely matched bins hinges on late-summer atmospheric patterns, storm frequency, and wind-driven ice export, which can accelerate or slow final losses before the annual minimum.

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