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MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Team A50%
// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES
Team A
50%
Team B
50%
Team C
50%
Team D
50%
Team E
50%
Other
50%
Cincinnati Reds
35%
Philadelphia Phillies
29%
Miami Marlins
27%
Pittsburgh Pirates
26%
Toronto Blue Jays
25%
Milwaukee Brewers
24%
Kansas City Royals
24%
New York Mets
23%
Cleveland Guardians
22%
Washington Nationals
20%
Arizona Diamondbacks
20%
Baltimore Orioles
19%
Chicago White Sox
19%
Atlanta Braves
17%
Houston Astros
14%
Detroit Tigers
6%
Athletics
4%
Los Angeles Dodgers
4%
Tampa Bay Rays
3%
New York Yankees
1%
Colorado Rockies
1%
Chicago Cubs
1%
Seattle Mariners
0%
Boston Red Sox
0%
Los Angeles Angels
0%
Minnesota Twins
0%
San Diego Padres
0%
San Francisco Giants
0%
St. Louis Cardinals
0%
Texas Rangers
0%
VOLUME
$1.3M
24H VOLUME
$808
LIQUIDITY
$6K
RESOLVES
Oct 11, 2026

Traders currently price "Team A" at 50% for "MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)". Full distribution: Team A 50%, Team B 50%, Team C 50%, Team D 50%. The market has traded $1.3M in total volume and resolves Oct 11, 2026. Cincinnati Reds lead MLB's 2026 ABS challenge success rates at roughly 63% overall, driven primarily by elite catcher performance (70.7%) that exceeds league norms where backstops average near 58-64% overturns versus lower rates for batters. Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Miami Marlins sit close behind in the 56-60% range, reflecting strong positional contributions and selective challenge usage that keep team totals competitive. Recent midseason data from sources like Baseball Savant and ESPN show narrow gaps among a half-dozen clubs, with success hinging on catcher framing instincts, pitch-tracking accuracy, and limited remaining challenges per game. This clustering sustains trader consensus around 25-35% implied probabilities for the top group, as small sample fluctuations or injury-related roster tweaks could shift standings before season's end.

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