MLB: Home Runs Leader
- Kyle Schwarber
- 60%
- +19.5
- Matt Olson
- 25%
- +6.2
- Junior Caminero
- 23%
- +1.4
- Yordan Alvarez
- 21%
- +2.6
- Ben Rice
- 18%
- +6.3
- Munetaka Murakami
- 2%
- —
- James Wood
- 1%
- —
- Nick Kurtz
- 1%
- —
- Rafael Devers
- 1%
- —
- Giancarlo Stanton
- 1%
- —
- Juan Soto
- 0%
- —
- Elly De La Cruz
- 0%
- —
- George Springer
- 0%
- —
- Mike Trout
- 0%
- —
- Shohei Ohtani
- 0%
- —
- CJ Abrams
- 0%
- —
- Aaron Judge
- 0%
- —
- Cal Raleigh
- 0%
- —
- Eugenio Suarez
- 0%
- —
- Sal Stewart
- 0%
- —
- Pete Alonso
- 0%
- —
- Jordan Walker
- 0%
- —
- Brandon Lowe
- 0%
- —
- Manny Machado
- 0%
- —
- Shea Langeliers
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Kyle Schwarber" at 60% for "MLB: Home Runs Leader". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 19.5 points. Full distribution: Kyle Schwarber 60%, Matt Olson 25%, Junior Caminero 23%, Yordan Alvarez 21%. The market has traded $3.1M in total volume and resolves Sep 28, 2026. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB home run race with a 42.5% implied probability, driven by his established power profile and consistent production in a favorable lineup spot. Ben Rice and Junior Caminero sit close behind at 27.7% and 24.8%, reflecting strong recent form and breakout trajectories for the younger hitters. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson remain relevant at 19.4% and 12.3% due to proven track records in power-friendly parks and health permitting full seasons. The market pricing captures a fluid, multi-player contest with ample games left, where injuries, hot streaks, or schedule factors could still shift the leaderboard before the regular season concludes.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.