Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 25% for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 25%, September 30 11%, August 31 5%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $6.7M in total volume and resolves Apr 30, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran’s Supreme Leader since his appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following his father’s death in US-Israeli strikes. He sustained facial and leg injuries in the same attack and has issued written statements and audio messages without verified public appearances or dated visual media since taking office. Iranian officials have cited ongoing conflict with the United States and security considerations as reasons for his absence, with one July report indicating he would not appear publicly until the war concludes. A short undated video clip released by state media in mid-August showed him in a private setting but has not altered trader assessments of near-term resolution odds. Scheduled events such as potential ceasefire talks, leadership commemorations, or shifts in the conflict timeline remain the main variables that could produce confirmed photography or video before year-end.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.