New pandemic in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "New pandemic in 2026?". The market has traded $1.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Strong market-implied odds against a new pandemic in 2026 stem from the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained global human-to-human transmission through mid-August, even as the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in central Africa. Regional surges in hantavirus, mpox clade I, dengue, and chikungunya remain geographically contained without exponential growth or reassortment capable of pandemic spread, according to CDC and WHO surveillance data. Post-COVID advances in genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have further reduced escalation risks from known threats. Realistic challenges include undetected zoonotic spillovers or viral evolution in reservoirs that could enable wider international transmission before year-end.

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