Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 74% for "Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: September 30 74%, September 15 45%, August 31 23%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $105K in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Anthropic’s June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 (general availability with safeguards) and Claude Mythos 5 (restricted, higher-capability version) established the Mythos-class tier above Opus, driving market-implied odds toward a September 30 release for the next model. Traders cite Anthropic’s accelerated cadence—Preview in April followed quickly by the Fable/Mythos pair—alongside July research showing continued gains on cryptographic and cyber benchmarks as evidence the lab is iterating rapidly. Export-control restrictions imposed days after launch and Project Glasswing’s defensive focus create uncertainty around timing and access expansion, while competitive pressure from other frontier labs adds potential for surprise announcements. Key near-term catalysts include any new system-card updates or partner expansions that could accelerate the next safeguarded release.

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