Next Premier of Quebec

Traders currently price "Paul St-Pierre Plamondon" at 72% for "Next Premier of Quebec". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 72%, Christine Fréchette 13%, Charles Milliard 12%, Bernard Drainville 0%. The market has traded $243K in total volume and resolves Oct 5, 2026. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois leads trader pricing for Quebec’s next premier due to the party’s consistent edge in recent voting intention surveys ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election. Polling averages place the PQ ahead of the Liberals and governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with Plamondon also topping leadership preference questions. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and premier in April 2026 after François Legault’s departure, faces declining government satisfaction ratings that have narrowed her market share. Charles Milliard, the Liberal leader, draws support in second place on some ballots but trails overall. Recent surveys continue to show a sizable undecided segment, leaving room for shifts in the final campaign weeks.

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