Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Traders currently price "Abiy Ahmed" at 97% for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.3 points. Full distribution: Abiy Ahmed 97%, Gedion Timothewos 1%, Berhanu Nega 0%, Shimelis Abdisa 0%. The market has traded $182.4M in total volume and resolves Jun 1, 2026. Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the market stems from the Prosperity Party’s expected landslide in Ethiopia’s June 1, 2026 parliamentary elections, which determines the prime minister. The party secured a parliamentary majority amid a fragmented opposition, security disruptions that suspended voting in parts of Oromia and Amhara, and the exclusion of Tigray from the ballot. As the incumbent since 2018, Abiy faces minimal institutional or party challenges to another term. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden parliamentary defections, major health developments, or unforeseen constitutional maneuvers, though none appear imminent given current vote counts and party control.

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