Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 86% for "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. The market has traded $239K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Nigel Farage remains Reform UK leader following his July 2026 resignation as MP for Clacton amid scrutiny over party donations and finances. He framed the ensuing by-election as a contest against the establishment and secured re-election on August 14, 2026, with other major parties opting not to field candidates. This outcome has reinforced his position within the party, with no reported challenges or internal moves to replace him. Reform UK continues to schedule events around Farage, including its national conference set for early September 2026. These developments have sustained trader consensus that leadership continuity through the remainder of the year is the most likely scenario.

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