Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026
- 60,000-65,000
- 29%
- −1.7
- 55,000-60,000
- 25%
- —
- 65,000-70,000
- 24%
- —
- <55,000
- 18%
- —
- 70,000-75,000
- 16%
- —
- 75,000-80,000
- 9%
- —
- 85,000+
- 8%
- —
- 80,000-85,000
- 6%
- —
Traders currently price "60,000-65,000" at 29% for "Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.7 points. Full distribution: 60,000-65,000 29%, 55,000-60,000 25%, 65,000-70,000 24%, <55,000 18%. The market has traded $10K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent trading around 67,000 reflects the Nikkei 225's advance from 2025 records, supported by AI-related semiconductor and tech earnings strength alongside Bank of Japan gradual policy normalization and periodic yen interventions that have capped excessive depreciation. Analyst median targets for December 2026 cluster near 62,800, with ranges reflecting uncertainty over further rate adjustments, sustained corporate margin expansion, and external risks including U.S. monetary conditions and global demand. Polymarket's tight distribution across the 55,000–70,000 bands captures this balanced outlook, where upside hinges on continued earnings beats and accommodative real rates while downside scenarios center on yen appreciation pressures or valuation compression in high-multiple growth names.
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