Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 75% for "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $324K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Pete Hegseth remains in office as Defense Secretary (or Secretary of War following the department's name change) amid ongoing military operations and leadership changes. Recent developments include his April 2026 dismissal of multiple senior officers, such as Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and Navy Secretary John Phelan, which drew bipartisan criticism including from Sen. Susan Collins over impacts on promotions and readiness. Early August reports noted tensions with President Trump over munitions shortages tied to Iran contingencies, while Hegseth has continued public engagements on carrier deployments, NATO contributions, and budget matters into mid-August. No congressional removal proceedings, resignation announcements, or administration actions have advanced, sustaining trader consensus that he will complete the year despite periodic calls for accountability from Democrats and select Republicans.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.