Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 14% for "Putin out as President of Russia by...?". Full distribution: June 30, 2027 14%, December 31, 2026 8%, September 30, 2026 2%, August 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $21.7M in total volume and resolves Jul 1, 2027. Putin’s position remains consolidated through institutional control and elite alignment, keeping trader probabilities for his removal low at roughly 14% by mid-2027 and under 8% by year-end 2026. The ongoing Ukraine conflict has produced domestic strains, including Ukrainian drone strikes on energy and logistics sites that prompted fuel shortages and a recent decree enabling temporary state administration of vulnerable infrastructure. Putin has responded with military leadership changes, including a new unmanned systems branch, and regional tours reinforcing wartime priorities. The September 2026 State Duma elections, framed by United Russia as a test of national unity, offer the nearest scheduled political event that could shape elite dynamics or public signaling, though no credible challenges to presidential tenure have surfaced.

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