Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 19% for "Putin out as President of Russia by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 19%, December 31, 2026 10%, September 30, 2026 4%, August 31, 2026 2%. The market has traded $17.3M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2027. Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.

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