H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?". The market has traded $190K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The House passed H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, in April 2025 and advanced related versions including the SAVE America Act in February 2026. The bill reached the Senate but stalled amid repeated failures to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold, with attempts as amendments to appropriations, reconciliation, and other measures defeated as recently as June 2026. Republicans hold a narrow majority insufficient for cloture without Democratic support, which has not materialized, while some procedural votes saw defections even within the majority. Scaled-back incentive approaches under consideration in the July 2026 budget resolution remain unresolved with limited legislative calendar remaining before year-end. These Senate dynamics sustain trader consensus against enactment in 2026.

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