Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 13% for "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 9.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 13%, June 30 0%, May 15 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $354K in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. US federal prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya in late April 2026 on narcotics trafficking and weapons charges tied to the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, prompting an immediate extradition request under the bilateral treaty. Mexico’s Foreign Ministry and President Claudia Sheinbaum responded by requiring “irrefutable evidence” meeting Mexican legal standards before any handover, with the Fiscalía General de la República tasked to review the filings. Rocha took a temporary leave of absence rather than resigning, preserving state-level protections while remaining in Sinaloa. No formal Mexican court approval or transfer has occurred, and diplomatic channels continue to emphasize sovereignty and evidentiary thresholds over rapid compliance. Any future movement hinges on evidence supplementation, bilateral talks, or domestic judicial rulings within the resolution window.

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