SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Traders currently price "September 30" at 94% for "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.7 points. Full distribution: September 30 94%, October 31 93%, Super Heavy booster explodes? 81%, September 15 81%. The market has traded $62K in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. SpaceX completed a successful Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026, deploying next-generation Starlink V3 satellites and achieving an intact upper-stage splashdown, which cleared the path for more ambitious objectives. Flight 14, using V3 vehicles Booster 21 and Ship 41, targets the program’s first true orbital profile with Starlink payload deployment and the initial attempt to catch the upper stage via the launch tower at Starbase. The Super Heavy booster is slated to return to the pad while regulatory approvals, including FCC filings, remain the key near-term gate. Hardware proof testing is complete and launch cadence goals point to a late-August or early-September window, contingent on data review and licensing.

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