"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)

Traders currently price "<900m" at 87% for ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 22.0 points. Full distribution: <900m 87%, 900 - 920m 9%, 920 - 940m 2%, 1080m+ 1%. The market has traded $52K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly amassed over $715 million by mid-August, fueled by strong Tom Holland-Zendaya appeal and early word-of-mouth. However, sharp weekend drops of around 60% have already set in, consistent with superhero blockbuster patterns, limiting how much the film can add over the final 16 days to August 31. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$900 million outcome at 87.5% implied probability because current daily runs near $11 million and typical late-August holdover performance point to roughly $150-180 million more at most, keeping totals in the mid-to-high $800 million range barring an unexpected surge. Upcoming chart updates and any August competition will be key swing factors, though the film’s legs already look solid enough to secure franchise highs without reaching the next threshold.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.