What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
- ↑ $7,800
- 100%
- +17.9
- ↑ $7,600
- 100%
- +7.4
- ↑ $7,400
- 100%
- +8.9
- ↓ $6,600
- 100%
- +8.0
- ↓ $6,400
- 100%
- +7.0
- ↑ $8,000
- 74%
- +20.0
- ↓ $7,400
- 64%
- +0.5
- ↓ $7,200
- 62%
- —
- ↓ $7,000
- 60%
- +0.5
- ↑ $8,200
- 34%
- −4.0
- ↓ $6,200
- 17%
- −2.5
- ↓ $6,000
- 16%
- −34.0
- ↑ $8,600
- 12%
- +0.5
- ↓ $5,800
- 11%
- −1.5
- ↓ $5,200
- 8%
- —
- ↑ $9,000
- 7%
- −43.0
- ↑ $10,000
- 6%
- —
- ↑ $9,300
- 5%
- —
- ↓ $4,500
- 4%
- —
Traders currently price "↑ $7,800" at 100% for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 17.9 points. Full distribution: ↑ $7,800 100%, ↑ $7,600 100%, ↑ $7,400 100%, ↓ $6,600 100%. The market has traded $298K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent S&P 500 levels near 7,800 reflect strong 2026 earnings growth now projected at 24-25% for the full year, fueled by AI-driven capital spending and resilient corporate margins across tech and energy sectors. This performance has outpaced earlier estimates amid a stable labor market and moderating inflation, with August 2026 CPI nowcasts showing headline readings around 3.3%. Trader focus centers on the September FOMC meeting and subsequent economic releases that will shape monetary policy expectations and Treasury yields. Narrow market leadership and elevated valuations introduce sensitivity to any earnings misses or shifts in risk appetite heading into year-end.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.