Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 2% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $19.9M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a renewed naval blockade and vessel attacks, continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic well below pre-conflict norms of 130–140 daily transits. Recent Kpler data show volumes at just six vessels on August 11 and averaging around 11 over the prior ten days—roughly one-tenth normal levels—driven by prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums and security concerns that have persisted since the February 2026 closure. Fading prospects for a durable peace deal following the June memorandum breakdown have kept implied probabilities for rapid normalization low, with oil and LNG flows representing nearly 20% of global supply remaining constrained. Traders are monitoring any de-escalation signals or FOMC-adjacent risk-asset moves for shifts in sentiment ahead of potential resolution dates.

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