Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 53% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $7.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Iranian demands for compensation and behavioral changes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-conflict norms into August 2026, following repeated breakdowns in ceasefires and a June memorandum of understanding. Recent ship attacks and mutual preconditions in bilateral talks have sustained elevated risks and naval restrictions, supporting trader consensus that full normalization remains uncertain by year-end. Competitive balance stems from the potential for Oman-mediated agreements or de-escalation to restore safe passage within the resolution window, weighed against risks of further incidents, blockades, or protracted demands that could extend disruptions.

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