Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Traders currently price "No" at 86% for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $3.2M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran military tensions since late February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at single-digit to low-teens levels daily—far below pre-crisis norms of roughly 60 vessels—due to Iranian threats, reported attacks on shipping, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that deter operators. As of mid-August 2026, vessel tracking data confirm ongoing restrictions with no verified large-scale resumption, sustaining trader consensus around the 85.5% implied probability that traffic will not normalize by September 30. Key near-term catalysts include any diplomatic breakthroughs on maritime access or verifiable de-escalation that could alter risk pricing before the deadline.

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