Strava IPO Closing Market Cap

Traders currently price "2B–3B" at 37% for "Strava IPO Closing Market Cap". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: 2B–3B 37%, 3B–4B 28%, 7B–10B 20%, 4B–5B 10%. The market has traded $89K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. Strava's last private valuation of $2.2 billion from its May 2025 funding round, paired with profitable subscription-driven revenue approaching $500 million in annual recurring revenue and robust user growth exceeding 100 million athletes, anchors trader expectations near the 2–4 billion range for its eventual IPO closing market cap. The tight split between the 2–3 billion and 3–4 billion outcomes reflects ongoing uncertainty over public multiples for fitness technology platforms amid 2026 IPO market conditions, execution on acquisitions like Runna, and the absence of a public S-1 with detailed financials since the confidential filing earlier this year. Competitive dynamics remain balanced because traders weigh Strava's strong retention and global community against broader sector comps and potential dilution or timing risks, while the notable 7–10 billion tail highlights upside scenarios from favorable equity sentiment or premium growth narratives. Fresh catalysts such as a public registration statement, banker updates on pricing, or shifts in comparable tech listings could quickly widen the gap by clarifying revenue trajectory and market appetite.

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