US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- December 31
- 78%
- −5.7
- October 31
- 65%
- −8.5
- September 30
- 45%
- −17.0
- August 31
- 22%
- −10.5
- August 22
- 12%
- −9.0
- August 15
- 1%
- −3.4
- August 14
- 0%
- −1.3
- July 24
- 0%
- −1.9
- July 31
- 0%
- −1.5
- July 14
- 0%
- −1.4
- August 7
- 0%
- −13.1
- August 8
- 0%
- −10.4
- August 9
- 0%
- −5.5
- August 10
- 0%
- −0.9
- August 11
- 0%
- −0.6
- August 12
- 0%
- −1.1
- August 13
- 0%
- −1.0
Traders currently price "December 31" at 78% for "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.7 points. Full distribution: December 31 78%, October 31 65%, September 30 45%, August 31 22%. The market has traded $14.2M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, reinstated in mid-July 2026 after a brief June pause tied to a tentative memorandum of understanding, remains in effect amid stalled ceasefire talks and renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. Defense Secretary statements on August 13 emphasized the military's capacity to sustain enforcement indefinitely while increasing economic pressure on Tehran, following reports of continued Iranian actions against commercial shipping and disputes over strait management with Oman. Trader consensus reflects these enforcement signals and the absence of verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past month, though markets assign elevated odds to resolution by year-end given ongoing bilateral channels and potential for de-escalation if talks resume. No major scheduled votes or summits are confirmed in the immediate window.
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