US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 7% for "US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?". Full distribution: August 31 7%, June 26 0%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Recent military exchanges and mutual accusations of breaches have strained the June 2026 US-Iran MOU, which established a 60-day window ending around mid-August for negotiating a final agreement on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, naval access, and force postures. On July 8, Iranian strikes on shipping prompted US responses and President Trump's statement that the framework was effectively over, though negotiators could continue. Iran suspended related commitments on July 18, citing US violations. These developments, amid ongoing regional tensions involving proxies and shipping lanes, shape trader assessments of whether Washington will formally announce withdrawal before the deadline or pursue extended talks. No major new diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past week.

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