US charges Hormuz fees by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 7% for "US charges Hormuz fees by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 7%, August 31 1%, July 17 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $960K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump's July 2026 demand that the United States charge ships 20 percent of cargo value for naval protection of the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate international pushback, including an IMO statement that mandatory transit fees lack legal basis under maritime conventions. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and parallel Iran-Oman talks have emphasized mine clearance and open passage without tolls, while vessel traffic data shows continued commercial flows. These diplomatic and legal hurdles explain why prediction-market pricing assigns low probability to U.S. implementation by late 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any formal policy directive, Senate or agency follow-through, or shifts in bilateral talks that could alter enforcement prospects.

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