US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 8% for "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?". Full distribution: December 31 8%, September 30 2%, August 31 1%, April 30 0%. The market has traded $29.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US-Iran diplomacy following 2025 strikes on nuclear sites centers on Iran's roughly 440 kg stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, with a June 2026 memorandum outlining possible on-site destruction followed by removal or third-party transfer rather than direct handover to Washington. Iran has reinforced facilities with collapsed tunnels, mines, and restricted access, while rejecting US demands for physical delivery and reaffirming enrichment rights. Ongoing talks prioritize sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access over immediate stockpile transfer, amid stalled progress on verification timelines and facility limits. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, logistical extraction risks, and absence of breakthroughs that would enable near-term US acquisition before year-end deadlines.

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