US strike on Colombia by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 34% for "US strike on Colombia by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 34%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $2.2M in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. US-Colombia tensions escalated sharply in January 2026 after the U.S. operation in Venezuela, with President Trump publicly indicating that military action targeting narco-trafficking networks in Colombia “sounds good to me.” Colombian President Gustavo Petro described the remarks as a sovereignty threat, though bilateral talks quickly produced February agreements on joint intelligence and operations against cartel leaders. Relations improved further under incoming President Abelardo de la Espriella, who advanced the “Plan Patriot 2.0” partnership emphasizing counter-narcotics and anti-guerrilla efforts, including Colombian strikes on ELN targets. U.S. maritime interdictions of suspected drug vessels have continued in the Caribbean and Pacific, occasionally near Colombian waters, but without reported strikes on Colombian territory. Recent U.S. statements have focused on coordinated action with Colombian forces rather than unilateral intervention.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.