US strike on Mexico by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 13% for "US strike on Mexico by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 13%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $3.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump's early 2026 statements threatening U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels, including possible land strikes, initially elevated trader attention to the "US strike on Mexico by...?" market. Subsequent developments have kept probabilities low, with strikes limited to alleged drug vessels in international waters rather than Mexican territory. Mexico's President Sheinbaum has emphasized bilateral coordination on cartel operations, while Mexican forces conducted independent actions such as the February 2026 operation against the CJNG leader. Congressional Democrats and diplomatic channels have highlighted risks of unilateral intervention, and trader consensus reflects these structural barriers alongside the absence of a triggering escalation through mid-2026.

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