Weed rescheduled by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 27% for "Weed rescheduled by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 27%, September 30 14%, July 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $796K in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. Recent executive actions have accelerated federal marijuana rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act. A December 2025 presidential order directed expedited review to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. In April 2026, the DEA immediately transferred FDA-approved products and state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III while launching a new administrative hearing on broader rescheduling, set to begin June 29 and conclude by July 15, 2026. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around hearing outcomes, participant challenges, potential appeals, and the timeline for any final rulemaking or agency decision. Key upcoming factors include the administrative law judge’s recommendations and any subsequent DEA or Justice Department actions that could finalize or delay full rescheduling.

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