Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Traders currently price "1" at 67% for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: 1 67%, 2 29%, 3 2%, 6 or lower 1%. The market has traded $3.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Strong El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific this summer are the main driver elevating 2026’s market-implied odds for a top ranking, with official NOAA and CPC outlooks now assigning over 90% probability of a very strong event peaking in fall-winter 2026-27. Year-to-date global temperatures through July rank among the highest on record per NCEI and Berkeley Earth analyses, though still trailing 2024’s record annual mean; the developing El Niño is expected to narrow that gap substantially in coming months. Historical analogs show strong El Niño events often push the following calendar year into the top two or three warmest, consistent with current trader consensus around first or second place. Remaining uncertainty stems from model spread in peak intensity and the timing of any subsequent La Niña transition, with updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA and IRI due in the coming weeks.

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