Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Traders currently price "Frontier Airlines" at 8% for "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: Frontier Airlines 8%, JetBlue 5%, Allegiant 3%, Alaska Airlines 2%. The market has traded $147K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. High jet fuel prices, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, remain the dominant pressure on U.S. low-cost carriers, with industry leaders warning of further bankruptcies and consolidation through year-end. Spirit Airlines’ May 2026 liquidation after two Chapter 11 filings in under a year illustrated the vulnerability, as fuel costs erased restructuring gains and produced negative free cash flow. Major network carriers posted a combined $1 billion industry loss in Q1 2026, while budget operators such as JetBlue, Frontier, and Allegiant continue reporting operating losses amid declining leisure demand and intense competition. Trader attention centers on these carriers’ ability to offset elevated fuel expenses—now exceeding prior-year levels—through capacity cuts, pricing power, or balance-sheet support before December 31.

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