Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
- Ariana Grande
- 100%
- +1.9
- Bad Bunny
- 100%
- +1.1
- Drake
- 100%
- —
- Harry Styles
- 100%
- +5.9
- Olivia Rodrigo
- 100%
- +34.3
- Mariah Carey
- 67%
- +8.5
- Morgan Wallen
- 53%
- −7.5
- Peso Pluma
- 51%
- +5.5
- Sabrina Carpenter
- 49%
- −1.5
- Lil Baby
- 47%
- +1.4
- Post Malone
- 46%
- −1.5
- Kendrick Lamar
- 42%
- +6.0
- SZA
- 40%
- −10.5
- The Weeknd
- 29%
- —
- Billie Eilish
- 27%
- +3.5
- Playboi Carti
- 26%
- +1.5
- Luke Combs
- 23%
- +2.5
- Rihanna
- 20%
- —
- Jack Harlow
- 17%
- —
- Tyler, The Creator
- 15%
- —
- Travis Scott
- 14%
- +1.0
- Frank Ocean
- 13%
- +1.9
- Doja Cat
- 13%
- —
- Zach Bryan
- 12%
- —
- Future
- 11%
- —
- A$AP Rocky
- 5%
- —
- Ed Sheeran
- 5%
- −0.5
- Kanye West
- 3%
- —
Traders currently price "Ariana Grande" at 100% for "Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.9 points. Full distribution: Ariana Grande 100%, Bad Bunny 100%, Drake 100%, Harry Styles 100%. The market has traded $163K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Dominant chart runs and streaming momentum currently shape trader views on 2026 Billboard Hot 100 toppers.** Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” has logged a record 17 weeks at No. 1 through mid-August, underscoring the power of sustained radio and streaming support for country-leaning tracks. Taylor Swift has already secured three chart-toppers this year, reinforcing her consistent ability to convert album cycles and fan engagement into multiple No. 1s. Other early achievers include Bruno Mars, Drake, Olivia Rodrigo, BTS, and Bad Bunny, each leveraging established fanbases or viral moments. With major fall releases and holiday season pushes still ahead, fresh singles from high-profile artists could open the door for additional first-time leaders or extended runs before year-end chart lock.
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