Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Traders currently price "Tim Cook - Apple" at 100% for "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 74.5 points. Full distribution: Tim Cook - Apple 100%, Sundar Pichai - Google 9%, Andy Jassy - Amazon 9%, Sam Altman - OpenAI 8%. The market has traded $710K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Tim Cook’s planned transition from Apple CEO to executive chairman on September 1, 2026, drives the highest implied probability in the market, reflecting a long-anticipated succession to hardware engineering lead John Ternus amid Apple’s need to accelerate AI capabilities beyond iPhone dominance. Recent AI-related pressures have prompted other shifts, including Adobe’s March 2026 leadership transition under investor scrutiny and Demis Hassabis stepping back from Google DeepMind CEO to chairman in August 2026. Broader tech dynamics—intense competition among large language model developers, regulatory scrutiny, and performance expectations—continue to heighten focus on executive tenure through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly earnings and any additional board announcements that could alter probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution.

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