Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Traders currently price "Canada" at 24% for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: Canada 24%, India 21%, Taiwan 17%, Israel 16%. The market has traded $364K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariff strategy, launched in 2025 with broad duties followed by country-specific pauses, has driven bilateral negotiations and produced multiple framework or finalized deals by mid-2026, including with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, the EU, South Korea, and several Latin American and Southeast Asian partners. Finalization of the Indonesia agreement in February 2026 and a July announcement with Jordan illustrate momentum in converting preliminary pacts into concrete terms on market access and tariff ceilings. The March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda emphasizes transforming existing frameworks into full reciprocal trade agreements, alongside the scheduled USMCA review and continued China talks. With limited time remaining before 2027, outcomes hinge on negotiation pace, Senate dynamics for any formal pacts, and responses from partners facing ongoing tariff pressures.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.