Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Traders currently price "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" at 55% for "Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?". Full distribution: No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 55%, December 14%, October 10%, September 10%. The market has traded $280K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade reimposed in early August following renewed attacks on commercial vessels, underpin the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic this year. Shipping data shows transits remain near 5% of pre-crisis averages amid fragile diplomacy, including the expired June MOU and ongoing Iran-Oman talks, elevating uncertainty in energy supply chains and oil price volatility. Trader consensus assigns modest odds to a late-2026 rebound, with December at 14%, reflecting the potential for de-escalation but acknowledging persistent barriers from sanctions, security demands, and regional instability that have disrupted roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows since February.

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